Evening Report: October 10, 2025
Visualizing market shifts during the U.S. federal government shutdown. In an information vacuum, proprietary data provides a critical edge.
100
+5.3% from morning
$0.141/bu
+8.5% from morning
Day 10
Key reports suspended
Friday's session revealed significant profit expansion and a strengthening in the wheat market as basis firmed despite falling futures. This chart compares the key performance indicators between the morning and evening runs, highlighting the day's positive momentum.
Wheat continues to be the dominant force, driven by strong mill demand and logistical premiums. Soybeans, while showing intraday profit improvement, remain structurally weak due to the ongoing China purchasing freeze. This visualization breaks down the opportunity mix and average profit by commodity.
Tonight's most profitable routes are exclusively long-haul wheat movements, primarily into Missouri terminals. Premiums at Mississippi River destinations are pronounced due to barge constraints, a direct result of worsening river conditions. These routes offer the best risk-adjusted returns for immediate execution.
| Route | Commodity | Est. Profit | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| KS North → MO Kansas City | WHEAT | $0.338/bu | 📈 Emerging, 🚛 Long Haul |
| MO North Central → MO St. Louis | WHEAT | $0.334/bu | 📈 Emerging, 🚢 River Premium |
| IL East → MO St. Louis | WHEAT | $0.325/bu | 📈 Emerging, 🚢 River Premium, 🛰️ NEUTRAL |
| MO Northeast → MO Kansas City | WHEAT | $0.309/bu | 📈 Emerging, 🚛 Terminal Demand, 🛰️ MOD_SHORT |
| IN West → MO St. Louis | WHEAT | $0.304/bu | 📈 Emerging, 🚢 River Premium |
Two major external forces are shaping the market: the USDA data blackout and deteriorating river conditions. The shutdown creates an information vacuum, while low water levels create logistical bottlenecks and scarcity premiums at key terminals.